Measuring Change Risk for Organisational Decision Making through a Hierarchical Model Process Approach

Project Management has long established the need for risk management techniques to be utilised in the succinct identification and mitigation of associated risks in projects. Such techniques aim at the reconciliation of countervailing project activities to reduce scope creep, increase the probability of on-time and within-budget delivery. Uncontrolled changes, regardless of size and complexity, can develop risks to projects and affect project success or even an organisation’s project delivery coherence. Ideally, a change or consequence based upon a decision should have a fairly high level of predictability and thus a low level of a potential risk materializing, which would significantly undo the decision taken. This paper proposes a novel modeling process approach; CRAM (Change Risk Assessment Model), which could significantly contribute to the missing formality of business models especially in the change risk assessment area.